Trade prediction markets

A practical guide to Polymarket prediction markets, pricing, access rules, fees, and resolution risk.

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What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users trade outcome shares on real-world events instead of trading against a house. The international product uses crypto rails, an order book, and onchain settlement, while Polymarket US is documented separately as a regulated event-contract exchange. The official Polymarket 101 page is the best starting point for how markets, custody, and settlement fit together.

How Polymarket works

Polymarket markets ask outcome-based questions, and traders buy or sell shares that reflect market-implied probability. The exact result depends on live liquidity, order type, and final resolution rules.

  1. Read the market questionStart with the title, then read the rules, source, end condition, and edge cases before treating the price as meaningful.
  2. Check the order bookPrices come from bids and asks. A displayed probability may differ from the price you actually pay or receive.
  3. Place or exit an orderUsers can buy, sell, or close positions before settlement when liquidity is available and access rules permit trading.
  4. Wait for resolutionWinning outcome tokens can be redeemed after the market resolves; losing outcome tokens have no redemption value.

Access and availability

Polymarket access is not the same everywhere. Always check the current product, jurisdiction rules, and account requirements before attempting to trade.

International access

Polymarket's international docs list geographic restrictions and state that orders from blocked regions are rejected. The geoblock page currently includes the United States among blocked countries for the international product.

Polymarket US

Polymarket US is described in its own official docs as a fiat-based, CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange for US residents. Treat it as a separate product with separate rules.

Regulatory context

The CFTC previously announced an enforcement settlement involving Polymarket's unregistered event markets. The CFTC release is useful background, but current availability should be checked from official Polymarket sources.

Fees, security, and resolution

Costs and risk are best read as components: trading fees where enabled, spread, slippage, funding route costs, wallet risk, and resolution uncertainty.

Fee components

Polymarket says taker fees can apply on certain markets, while makers are not charged trading fees. Review the fee docs for the current market category rather than assuming one fixed cost.

Self-custody risk

The international docs describe a non-custodial model, so wallet access and private-key handling matter. Losing key access, signing a bad transaction, or using an unverified interface can still lead to fund loss.

Resolution risk

Resolution depends on the market's rules and oracle process. Polymarket's resolution docs explain proposals, disputes, and redemptions, so read the rules before sizing a position.

Core Polymarket Concepts

These are the pieces to understand before interpreting a price or opening a position.

No Shares

Pays if the event does not happen Outcome

A No share is the opposite side of the event question. Its price can move sharply when new information changes the market view.

Docs ↗

Order Book

Peer-to-peer bids and asks Pricing

Polymarket uses an order book, so spread and depth matter. Thin books can make small-looking trades execute at worse prices.

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Market Rules

Source, date, and edge cases Read

The title is not enough. Rules define what counts, which source is used, and how ambiguous outcomes should be handled.

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pUSD

Collateral in the docs Funds

Polymarket's newer docs refer to pUSD as collateral for outcome pairs. Confirm the exact funding and withdrawal route in the interface you use.

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UMA

UMA Oracle

Resolution proposal process Oracle

The oracle process can include proposals and disputes. That process helps settle markets, but it does not remove rule or interpretation risk.

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Common Market Areas

Polymarket markets change over time, but these categories show the kinds of questions users often analyze.

Crypto

Token and market milestones Asset

Crypto markets may reference prices, launches, listings, or protocol events. Verify the data source named in the specific market.

Open ↗

Sports

Games, seasons, and records Event

Sports markets can have lineup, injury, start-time, and settlement nuances. Open orders may need special attention around game start.

Docs ↗

Economics

Macro releases and rates Macro

Economic markets often hinge on an official release or defined measurement. The source and timing are part of the trade.

Open ↗

Culture

Media and public events Event

Culture markets can look simple but hide definition risk. Watch for precise wording around nominees, releases, appearances, or awards.

Open ↗

Polymarket International vs. Polymarket US

Polymarket documents two distinct products: the international crypto-based product and Polymarket US. Access, collateral, and regulation should be checked product by product.

AreaInternationalPolymarket US
Primary railCrypto-based product using blockchain settlement.Fiat-based event-contract exchange.
US accessUS order placement is listed as blocked in the international geoblock docs.Built for US residents under the product's stated rules.
Regulatory postureSubject to geographic restrictions and international availability rules.Described as operating under CFTC oversight.
What to verifyWallet, market rules, collateral route, and geoblock status.Account eligibility, market availability, deposits, and exchange rules.

Polymarket FAQ

Is Polymarket available in the United States?

For the international Polymarket product, the official geographic restrictions page lists the United States as blocked for order placement. Polymarket US is documented separately as a regulated US event-contract exchange, so US users should use the current official US product and rules rather than trying to bypass restrictions.

How does Polymarket price outcomes?

Prices come from supply and demand in an order book, not from Polymarket setting odds. The prices and orderbook docs explain that displayed prices represent market-implied probability, but your actual execution depends on bids, asks, spread, and available depth.

Does Polymarket custody my funds?

The international docs describe Polymarket as non-custodial, with trades settling through smart contracts. That still leaves wallet, signing, interface, and recovery risk. Read Polymarket 101 and use only verified links before connecting a wallet or approving transactions.

What fees should I expect on Polymarket?

Do not assume one fixed fee. Polymarket's fee documentation says taker fees can apply on certain markets and are determined by market category, while other costs can include spread, slippage, funding route charges, and third-party intermediary fees.

How are Polymarket markets resolved?

Markets resolve according to their predefined rules and a proposal or dispute process. The resolution docs explain how winning tokens can be redeemed after resolution and why traders should read the source, end date, and edge cases before entering a position.

Is Polymarket the same as a sportsbook?

No. Polymarket is structured around peer-to-peer event contracts and order-book trading rather than house-set lines. The Polymarket US docs make this distinction for the US product, but market, legal, and account rules still matter.